Detecting Emerging Transmissibility of Avian Influenza Virus in Human Households
Identifieur interne : 003732 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 003731; suivant : 003733Detecting Emerging Transmissibility of Avian Influenza Virus in Human Households
Auteurs : Michiel Van Boven [Pays-Bas] ; Marion Koopmans [Pays-Bas] ; Mirna Du Ry Van Beest Holle [Pays-Bas] ; Adam Meijer [Pays-Bas] ; Don Klinkenberg [Pays-Bas] ; Christl A. Donnelly [Royaume-Uni] ; Hans J. A. P. Heesterbeek [Pays-Bas]Source :
- PLoS Computational Biology [ 1553-734X ] ; 2007.
Abstract
Accumulating infections of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in humans underlines the need to track the ability of these viruses to spread among humans. A human-transmissible avian influenza virus is expected to cause clusters of infections in humans living in close contact. Therefore, epidemiological analysis of infection clusters in human households is of key importance. Infection clusters may arise from transmission events from (i) the animal reservoir, (ii) humans who were infected by animals (primary human-to-human transmission), or (iii) humans who were infected by humans (secondary human-to-human transmission). Here we propose a method of analysing household infection data to detect changes in the transmissibility of avian influenza viruses in humans at an early stage. The method is applied to an outbreak of H7N7 avian influenza virus in The Netherlands that was the cause of more than 30 human-to-human transmission events. The analyses indicate that secondary human-to-human transmission is plausible for the Dutch household infection data. Based on the estimates of the within-household transmission parameters, we evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, and conclude that it is unlikely that all household infections can be prevented with current antiviral drugs. We discuss the applicability of our method for the detection of emerging human-to-human transmission of avian influenza viruses in particular, and for the analysis of within-household infection data in general.
Url:
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.0030145
PubMed: 17676981
PubMed Central: 1933478
Affiliations:
- Pays-Bas, Royaume-Uni
- Angleterre, Grand Londres, Utrecht (province)
- Londres, Utrecht
- Université d'Utrecht
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Koopmans</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"> Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea> Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Bilthoven</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Du Ry Van Beest Holle, Mirna" sort="Du Ry Van Beest Holle, Mirna" uniqKey="Du Ry Van Beest Holle M" first="Mirna" last="Du Ry Van Beest Holle">Mirna Du Ry Van Beest Holle</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:aff id="aff3"> Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea> Centre for Infectious Disease Control, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment, 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Donnelly</name><affiliation wicri:level="3"><nlm:aff id="aff4"> Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea> Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Londres</settlement><region type="country">Angleterre</region><region type="région" nuts="1">Grand Londres</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, Hans J A P" sort="Heesterbeek, Hans J A P" uniqKey="Heesterbeek H" first="Hans J. A. P." last="Heesterbeek">Hans J. A. P. Heesterbeek</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:aff id="aff1"> Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands</nlm:aff><country xml:lang="fr">Pays-Bas</country><wicri:regionArea> Faculty of Veterinary Medicine, Utrecht University, Utrecht</wicri:regionArea><placeName><settlement type="city">Utrecht</settlement><region nuts="2" type="province">Utrecht (province)</region></placeName><orgName type="university">Université d'Utrecht</orgName></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">PLoS Computational Biology</title><idno type="ISSN">1553-734X</idno><idno type="eISSN">1553-7358</idno><imprint><date when="2007">2007</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p>Accumulating infections of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in humans underlines the need to track the ability of these viruses to spread among humans. A human-transmissible avian influenza virus is expected to cause clusters of infections in humans living in close contact. Therefore, epidemiological analysis of infection clusters in human households is of key importance. Infection clusters may arise from transmission events from (i) the animal reservoir, (ii) humans who were infected by animals (primary human-to-human transmission), or (iii) humans who were infected by humans (secondary human-to-human transmission). Here we propose a method of analysing household infection data to detect changes in the transmissibility of avian influenza viruses in humans at an early stage. The method is applied to an outbreak of H7N7 avian influenza virus in The Netherlands that was the cause of more than 30 human-to-human transmission events. The analyses indicate that secondary human-to-human transmission is plausible for the Dutch household infection data. Based on the estimates of the within-household transmission parameters, we evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral prophylaxis, and conclude that it is unlikely that all household infections can be prevented with current antiviral drugs. We discuss the applicability of our method for the detection of emerging human-to-human transmission of avian influenza viruses in particular, and for the analysis of within-household infection data in general.</p></div></front><back><div1 type="bibliography"><listBibl><biblStruct></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Webster, Rg" uniqKey="Webster R">RG Webster</name></author><author><name sortKey="Peiris, M" uniqKey="Peiris M">M Peiris</name></author><author><name sortKey="Chen, H" uniqKey="Chen H">H Chen</name></author><author><name sortKey="Guan, Y" uniqKey="Guan Y">Y Guan</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Beigel, Jh" uniqKey="Beigel J">JH Beigel</name></author><author><name sortKey="Farrar, J" uniqKey="Farrar J">J Farrar</name></author><author><name sortKey="Han, Am" uniqKey="Han A">AM Han</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hayden, Fg" uniqKey="Hayden F">FG Hayden</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hyer, R" 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Bosman</name></author><author><name sortKey="Van De Kamp, Ehm" uniqKey="Van De Kamp E">EHM van de Kamp</name></author><author><name sortKey="Wilbrink, B" uniqKey="Wilbrink B">B Wilbrink</name></author><author><name sortKey="Du Ry Van Beest Holle, M" uniqKey="Du Ry Van Beest Holle M">M Du Ry van Beest Holle</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ball, F" uniqKey="Ball F">F Ball</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Ball, F" uniqKey="Ball F">F Ball</name></author><author><name sortKey="O Neill, Pd" uniqKey="O Neill P">PD O'Neill</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Lloyd Smith, Jo" uniqKey="Lloyd Smith J">JO Lloyd-Smith</name></author><author><name sortKey="Schreiber, Sj" uniqKey="Schreiber S">SJ Schreiber</name></author><author><name sortKey="Kopp, Pe" uniqKey="Kopp P">PE Kopp</name></author><author><name sortKey="Getz, Wm" uniqKey="Getz W">WM Getz</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Begon, M" uniqKey="Begon M">M Begon</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bennett, M" uniqKey="Bennett M">M Bennett</name></author><author><name sortKey="Bowers, Rg" uniqKey="Bowers R">RG Bowers</name></author><author><name sortKey="French, Np" uniqKey="French N">NP French</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hazel, Sm" uniqKey="Hazel S">SM Hazel</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Diekmann, O" uniqKey="Diekmann O">O Diekmann</name></author><author><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, Jap" uniqKey="Heesterbeek J">JAP Heesterbeek</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Burnham, Kp" uniqKey="Burnham K">KP Burnham</name></author><author><name sortKey="Anderson, Dr" uniqKey="Anderson D">DR Anderson</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Jefferson, T" uniqKey="Jefferson T">T Jefferson</name></author><author><name sortKey="Demicheli, V" uniqKey="Demicheli V">V Demicheli</name></author><author><name sortKey="Rivetti, D" uniqKey="Rivetti D">D Rivetti</name></author><author><name sortKey="Jones, M" uniqKey="Jones M">M Jones</name></author><author><name sortKey="Di Pietrantonj, C" uniqKey="Di Pietrantonj C">C Di Pietrantonj</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Halloran, Me" uniqKey="Halloran M">ME Halloran</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Halloran, Me" uniqKey="Halloran M">ME Halloran</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hayden, Fg" uniqKey="Hayden F">FG Hayden</name></author><author><name sortKey="Yang, Y" uniqKey="Yang Y">Y Yang</name></author><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Monto, As" uniqKey="Monto A">AS Monto</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Longini, Im" uniqKey="Longini I">IM Longini</name></author><author><name sortKey="Nizam, A" uniqKey="Nizam A">A Nizam</name></author><author><name sortKey="Xu, S" uniqKey="Xu S">S Xu</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ungchusak, K" uniqKey="Ungchusak K">K Ungchusak</name></author><author><name sortKey="Hanshaoworakul, W" uniqKey="Hanshaoworakul W">W Hanshaoworakul</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Cauchemez, S" uniqKey="Cauchemez S">S Cauchemez</name></author><author><name sortKey="Carrat, F" uniqKey="Carrat F">F Carrat</name></author><author><name sortKey="Viboud, C" uniqKey="Viboud C">C Viboud</name></author><author><name sortKey="Valleron, Aj" uniqKey="Valleron A">AJ Valleron</name></author><author><name sortKey="Boelle, Py" uniqKey="Boelle P">PY Boelle</name></author></analytic></biblStruct><biblStruct><analytic><author><name sortKey="Rousset, F" uniqKey="Rousset F">F Rousset</name></author><author><name sortKey="Ronce, O" uniqKey="Ronce O">O Ronce</name></author></analytic></biblStruct></listBibl></div1></back></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Pays-Bas</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country><region><li>Angleterre</li><li>Grand Londres</li><li>Utrecht (province)</li></region><settlement><li>Londres</li><li>Utrecht</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université d'Utrecht</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Pays-Bas"><region name="Utrecht (province)"><name sortKey="Van Boven, Michiel" sort="Van Boven, Michiel" uniqKey="Van Boven M" first="Michiel" last="Van Boven">Michiel Van Boven</name></region><name sortKey="Du Ry Van Beest Holle, Mirna" sort="Du Ry Van Beest Holle, Mirna" uniqKey="Du Ry Van Beest Holle M" first="Mirna" last="Du Ry Van Beest Holle">Mirna Du Ry Van Beest Holle</name><name sortKey="Heesterbeek, Hans J A P" sort="Heesterbeek, Hans J A P" uniqKey="Heesterbeek H" first="Hans J. A. P." last="Heesterbeek">Hans J. A. P. Heesterbeek</name><name sortKey="Klinkenberg, Don" sort="Klinkenberg, Don" uniqKey="Klinkenberg D" first="Don" last="Klinkenberg">Don Klinkenberg</name><name sortKey="Koopmans, Marion" sort="Koopmans, Marion" uniqKey="Koopmans M" first="Marion" last="Koopmans">Marion Koopmans</name><name sortKey="Meijer, Adam" sort="Meijer, Adam" uniqKey="Meijer A" first="Adam" last="Meijer">Adam Meijer</name><name sortKey="Van Boven, Michiel" sort="Van Boven, Michiel" uniqKey="Van Boven M" first="Michiel" last="Van Boven">Michiel Van Boven</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Angleterre"><name sortKey="Donnelly, Christl A" sort="Donnelly, Christl A" uniqKey="Donnelly C" first="Christl A" last="Donnelly">Christl A. Donnelly</name></region></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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